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Current Market

In my previous letter, sent to you shortly after Christmas, I wrote: "We are in a bull market, but this third major rally of 2016 is struggling at an overbought level." That day the S&P closed at 2249. Last Friday it closed at 2274. 25 S&P points in two weeks is not much of a rally. Let's see what our charts are saying now...

The weekly Impulse remains blue, the daily has turned green on Friday (it would have been blue if the S&P closed one point lower). The forward-looking NH-NL Index remains in the bullish zone in only one out of four lookback windows that we track. Its patterns of weakness persist, marked by slanted red arrows.

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When someone asked Baron Rothschild, one of the wealthiest bankers in Europe, how he became so rich he answered: "Buy when blood is flowing in the streets." One of his coups: when Napoleon was threatening England, he kept buying its depressed securities.

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